Selection Sunday Reaction – Eye Test!?, Shut up Vitale!

If I hear the phrase “eye test” one more time, I might just have to shoot someone. What does it even mean? Someone thinks a team is good without any real quantitative data. So does Maryland pass the “eye test”? They played a lot of teams close, but didn’t win them. It just seems like a real general term to dis-credit mid-majors or teams that you can’t really argue against. Lets continue.

I have major issues with Clemson and UAB being selected over Colorado. I can understand why Virginia Tech wasn’t selected, but Colorado HAS to be in over at least one of these teams. Colorado has 6 Top 50 wins whereas Clemson and UAB only have 1, COMBINED. That one win is over VCU (49), at home. Clemson went 9-7 in a mediocre ACC and has zero Top 50 wins. Committee, you done screwed up.

I have been a major defender of VCU, and I’ll continue it here. vs UCLA, at ODU, vs George Mason, at Wichita State. All very impressive wins away from home. Sure they have three bad losses and a bunch of losses, but which bubble team doesn’t? I can see arguments for VCU being out, but there is definitely a strong argument for them to be in. If someone says otherwise, they are dead wrong.

Dick Vitale needs to shut up. Your passion and ranting has nothing to do how much a team should deserve a bid. Virginia Tech beat your Dukies, BIG WHOOP. They did little outside of that, including a very mediocre OOC and a 2-6 record against the Top 50. The argument for them to be OUT is definitely there. He must feel a little dumb after claiming Virginia Tech had locked up a bid after beating Duke a few weeks ago. So biased.

On the flipside, major props to Doug Gottlieb for ripping UAB and Clemson to shreds. Not just because he agrees with me and because he is one my favorite college basketball analysists, but because he doesn’t use the phrase “eye test”. Okay, maybe because he agrees with me.

Joe Lunardi fails again. Lunardi got 65/68 teams correct and royally screwed up with Saint Mary’s. He had the Gaels 9 spots ahead of of VCU. The guy who gets the most plugs tanks again on Selection Sunday. Good job ESPN!

I find it a bit odd that no one is really arguing against USC, everyone is picking on VCU instead. You can guess which team is from a BCS conference and which is a mid-major. USC can be argued either way, they are deserving of a bid, but have also slipped up in a ton of games.

In conclusion, I think there is an argument for Colorado to be left out, but their ability to beat top teams when compared to Clemson and UAB is their ticket IN. As for Virginia Tech, I thought they should be in over UAB/Clemson, but I can definitely understand why they aren’t. Not so much for Colorado.

Additionally, I probably shouldn’t have had Colorado in as a LOCK when I saw that Jerry Palm didn’t even have them in. Never go against Jerry! Also pretty surprised that Georgia is such a high seed, I had them as my last team in.

Hopefully that rant wasn’t too all over the place. This has surely been a wild Championship Week followed by a wild Selection Sunday. Good luck to all of you in your brackets. March Madness is upon us.

Final Field of 68 Prediction

Auto Bids:
1. ACC – Duke
2. American East – Boston U
3. Atlantic 10 – Richmond
4. Atlantic Sun – Belmont
5. Big 12 – Kansas
6. Big East – UConn
7. Big Sky – No. Colorado
8. Big South – UNC-Ashville
9. Big Ten – Ohio State
10. Big West – UC Santa Barbara
11. Colonial – Old Dominion
12. Conference USA – Memphis
13. Horizon – Butler
14. Ivy – Princeton
15. MAAC – SPC
16. MAC – Akron
17. MEAC – Hampton
18. Missouri Valley – Indiana State
19. Mountain West – San Diego State
20. Northeast – Long Island
21. Ohio Valley – Morehead St
22. Pac 10 – Washington
23. Patriot – Bucknell
24. SEC – Kentucky
25. Southern – Wofford
26. Southland – TX San Antonio
27. Summit – Oakland
28. Sun Belt -AR Little Rock
29. SWAC – Alabama State
30. WAC – Utah St.
31. West Coast – Gonzaga

At-large locks (32-61):
ACC: UNC
Atlantic 10: Temple, Xavier
Big 12: Texas, Texas A/M, Kansas State, Missouri, Colorado
Big Ten: Purdue, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan
Big East: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, St. John’s, Syracuse, WVU, Cincinnati, Marquette
CAA: George Mason
Moutain West: BYU, UNLV
Pac-10: UCLA, Arizona, Florida
SEC: Vanderbilt, Tennessee

Bubble teams:
62. Michigan St. (18-14 (11-10) RPI: 47 SOS: 10 vsTop50: 5-13 vsTop100: 10-13 GW: Wisky, Wash, Illinois, Purdue BL: Iowa)
63. Illinois (19-13 (9-10) RPI: 46 SOS: 18 vsTop50: 5-10 vsTop100: 11-11 GW: UNC, Zaga, Wisky, MSU BL: UIC, Indiana )
****
64. Florida St. (21-10 (11-6) RPI: 54 SOS: 81 vsTop50: 1-5 vsTop100: 6-9 GW: Duke BL: Auburn)
65. VCU (23-11 (14-7) RPI: 50 SOS: 87 vsTop50: 3-5 vsTop100: 8-8 GW: UCLA, ODU, GMason BL: Georgia St, USF, NEastern)
66. Virginia Tech (21-11 (11-8) RPI: 60 SOS: 75 vsTop50: 2-6 vsTop100: 7-8 GW: PSU, Duke FSUx2 BL: Virginiax2, GT)
67. USC (19-14 (11-9) RPI: 67 SOS: 39 vsTop50: 5-5 vsTop100: 8-8 GW: Texas, Tenn, UCLA, Arizona, Wash BL: Rider, TCU, Bradley, Oregon St, Oregon )
68. Georgia (21-11 (10-8) RPI: 48 SOS: 40 vsTop50: 3-9 vsTop100: 5-11 GW: UK, Tenn, UAB, CU BL: None)
—Bubble Bursts Here—
Clemson (21-11 (10-8) RPI: 56 SOS: 59 vsTop50: 0-6 vsTop100: 9-8 GW:BC x2, VT BL: Virginia, NCSt, S. Carolina)
Alabama (21-11 (13-5) RPI:82 SOS: 115 vsTop50:4-4 vsTop100:5-7 GW: UK, Georgia x2, Tenn BL: SHU, Iowa, Prov, Arkansas)
Saint Mary’s (23-8 (12-4) RPI: 45 SOS: 100 vsTop50: 1-4 vsTop100: 3-6 GW: SJU, Zaga BL: Portland, San Diego)
UAB (22-8 (12-5) RPI: 31 SOS: 79 vsTop50: 0-4 vsTop100: 10-7 GW: VCU BL: Arizona State)
***
Boston College (20-12 (10-8) RPI: 58 SOS: 38 vsTop50: 1-6 vsTop100: 7-9 GW: A&M, VT x2 BL: Yale, Rhodie)
Harvard (21-6 (12-3) RPI: 35 SOS: 141 vsTop50: 1-5 vsTop100: 3-5 GW: BC, CU, Princeton BL: Yale)
Missouri St. (25-8 (17-4) RPI: 42 SOS: 126 vsTop50: 0-1 vsTop100: 3-6 GW: WSU x2 BL:Northern Iowa, Evansville)

Teams on the outside of the asterisks are teams that I would be surprised if they were left out, or included in the field – respectively. Ex: If Boston College makes the field, I will be surprised. Teams that are on the insides of the asterisks are all teams that I can see go either way.

There are dozens of arguments for the teams within the asterisks to go either way – I’ve heard just about all of them. It will really be up to the committee to see how they handle resumes like Virginia Tech’s, Alabama’s, USC’s, Clemson’s and Saint Mary’s. Each team has their faults, its all about how the committee weighs the pros and cons of each resume.

The team that I’ve been high on for the past few days is Virginia Commonwealth. I am really impressed with their high Top 100 win total for a mid-major as well as their Top 50 wins which are all away from home.

A team that I am specifically not impressed with is Saint Mary’s. 2-6 against the Top 75 is not getting it done for me. They have a “cleaner” looking resume than USC and Alabama, but I’m just not buying it.

Overall, I think it is ultimately down to Georgia, USC, Alabama, Clemson and Saint Mary’s for the last two bids. I took Georgia and USC, but I can really any of those teams making the field of 68.

We’ll check back after the Selection Show to see how I did, hopefully better than last year (64/65)!

Brief Pac-10 Tournament Predictions

Tournament Bracket

Times are local

First Round:
Stanford vs Oregon State – 3/9 6:10PM – FSN
Oregon vs Arizona State – 3/9 8:40PM – FSN

Second Round:
USC vs California – 3/10 12:10PM – FSN
Arizona vs Stanford – 3/10 2:40PM – FSN
UCLA vs Oregon – 3/10 6:10PM – FSN
Washington vs Washington State – 3/10 8:40PM – FSN

Semi-Finals:
USC vs Arizona – 3/11 6:10PM – FSN
UCLA vs Washington State – 3/11 8:40PM – FSN

Finals:
Arizona vs UCLA – 3/12 3:15PM – CBS

Went a little outside the box with these predictions. Washington won’t have Venoy Overton for their game against Washington State, while Klay Thompson will be in uniform for the Cougars.

Dark horse: USC

Brief Big 12 Tournament Predictions

Tournament Bracket

Times are local

First Round:
Nebraska vs Oklahoma State – 3/9 11:30AM – Big 12 Network
Colorado vs Iowa State – 3/9 2PM – Big 12 Network
Baylor vs Oklahoma – 3/9 6PM – Big 12 Network
Missouri vs Texas Tech – 3/9 8:30PM – Big 12 Network

Second Round:
Kansas vs Nebraska – 3/10 11:30AM – Big 12 Network
Kansas State vs Colorado – 3/10 2PM – Big 12 Network
Texas vs Baylor – 3/10 6PM – Big 12 Network
Texas A/M vs Missouri – 3/10 8:30PM – ESPN2

Semi-Finals:
Kansas vs Kansas State – 3/11 6PM – Big 12 Network
Texas vs Missouri – 3/11 8:30PM – Big 12 Network

Finals:
Kansas vs Texas – 3/12 5PM – ESPN

Call me boring but no real surprises here besides Missouri over the Aggies in the second round. Expect a Kansas – Texas championship game.

Darkhorse: Kansas State

Brief Big Ten Tournament Predictions

Tournament Bracket

First Round:
Northwestern vs Minnesota – 3/10 2:30PM – ESPN2
Michigan State vs Iowa – 3/10, 25 minutes after NW/Minny – ESPN2
Penn State vs Indiana – 3/10 7:30PM – Big Ten Network

Second Round:
Ohio State vs Northwestern – 3/11 Noon – ESPN
Michigan vs Illinois – 3/11, 25 after OSU/NW – ESPN
Purdue vs Michigan State – 3/11 630PM – Big Ten Network
Penn State vs Wisconsin – 3/11, 25 minutes after Purdue/MSU – Big Ten Nework

Semi-Finals:
Ohio State vs Michigan – 3/12 1:40PM – CBS
Purdue vs Penn State – 3/12, 25 minutes after OSU/UM – CBS

Finals:
Ohio State vs Purdue – 3/13 3:30PM – CBS

Not many surprises here. Penn State can make a run to the semi-finals since Wisconsin isn’t the same team away from home. Don’t think they will, but I took them to spice up the predictions a little bit.

Brief Big East Tournament Predictions

Tournament Bracket

First Round:
UConn vs Depaul – Noon ESPN2
Seton Hall vs Rutgers – 2PM ESPN2
Villanova vs South Florida – 7PM ESPNU
Marquette vs Providence – 9PM ESPNU

Second Round:
UConn vs Georgetown – Noon ESPN
St. John’s vs Seton Hall – 2:30PM ESPN
Cincinnati vs Villanova -7PM ESPN
West Virginia vs Marquette – 930PM ESPN

Third Round:
Pittsburgh vs UConn – Noon ESPN
Syracuse vs St. John’s – 230PM ESPN
Notre Dame vs Cincinnati – 7PM ESPN
Louisville vs West Virginia – 930PM ESPN

Semi-Finals:
Pittsburgh vs Syracuse – 7PM ESPN
Cincinnati vs Louisville – 930PM ESPN

Finals:
Syracuse vs Louisville – 915PM ESPN

Darkhorse(s): Cincinnati & UConn

LockBox & Notes: March 7th

Add: Alabama
Remove: Minnesota, Southern Miss

Last 4 IN: Boston College, Virginia Tech, Michigan, Colorado
First 4 OUT: Penn State, Baylor, Memphis, Clemson
On the Fringe: Alabama, VCU, Washington State, Missouri State

21 teams for 13 bids

Notes: Minnesota was eliminated after a very poor showing down the stretch in the Big Ten. Southern Miss finished 0-3 in C-USA including a loss to Tulsa to get themselves off the board. Alabama is back in the mix with a win over Georgia

Bubble teams are rooting for Utah State, Butler, Old Dominion and Gonzaga to win their respective conference tournaments.

There will be one more LockBox released on Selection Sunday along with a complete breakdown of every team that has locked up a bid. I will rank the bubble teams in order and give approximate percentages of making the tournament for each, similar to this site: DanceCard. I got 64/65 teams correct last season.

Conference Tournaments – Bid Stealing 101

Every season, bids are stolen by teams of one-bid leagues that lose in their conference tournaments. Example: If Butler were to lose in the Horizon League tournament, and the automatic bid is taken by a team that has no shot at an at-large otherwise. Butler, the Horizon League favorite, would then take at-large. These teams “steal” bids from at-large teams that would otherwise make the field. If you are a fan of a bubble team, root for the following teams to win their conference tournaments.

Conference: Atlantic Sun
School: Belmont
Record: 27-4 (19-1)
Why: Belmont is pretty much the Murray State of last season. Belmont has no Top 50 wins, two Top 100 wins (E. Tenn St), and what would be nearly a Top 50 RPI if they lose in the Atlantic Sun final.
Chance to Dance: 5% – Not much, if any, meat on their resume besides three close losses to SEC foes Tennessee (x2) and Vanderbilt. Maybe if Belmont had finished 20-0 in conference play they’d have a better shot. A sub 200 SOS and two bad losses aren’t helping their case.

Conference: Horizon League
School: Butler
Record: 20-9 (13-5)
Why: 3 Top 50 wins, 5 Top 100 wins (3 away from home), Top 50~ RPI, Top 100 SOS.
Chance to Dance: 40% – Might depend on who the Bulldogs lose to (RPI). Either way, could Butler withstand 6 losses to Horizon League teams with 3 (maybe 4) of them being “bad losses”?

Conference: Ivy League
School: Harvard
Record: 19-5 (10-2)
Why: Harvard beat Colorado and Boston College in their OOC play and all of their losses are on the road, only one to a sub-100 RPI team. Top 50 RPI.
Chance to Dance: First, the hypothetical. Harvard would need to beat Penn and Princeton in their remaining two games, while Princeton beats Dartmouth and Penn. They two teams would then tie and have to play in a playoff game. Obviously, Harvard would have to lose for them to not get the auto bid. If this scenario were to somehow happen, their Chance to Dance would be: 20%

Conference: Summit League
School: Oakland
Record: 21-9 (17-1)
Why: No Sub 150 losses, 1 Top 50 win, Top 150 SOS (battle tested OOC), Top 50~ RPI.
Chance to Dance: 10% – Oakland would likely lose to IUPUI or Oral Roberts in the Summit League final, which wouldn’t add a sub-150 loss, but would add another sub-100 loss. They can hang their hat on a Top 50 win over Tennessee and a stacked OOC slate.

Conference: Western Athletic Conference
School: Utah State
Record: 25-3 (13-1)
Why: Top 20 RPI, Top 125 SOS, two Top 100 wins, possibly 1 Top 50 on the road (SMC).
Chance to Dance: 35% – A lot will depend on whether or not Saint Mary’s stays in the Top 50. Utah State would have two sub-100 losses if they lose in the WAC tournament.

Summary: Butler and Utah State are the real teams to worry about. If the Ivy League situation is to somehow play out, it would be interesting to see how much consideration Harvard is given. Belmont and Oakland have outside shots.

You may be wondering why I didn’t mention Saint Mary’s or Gonzaga. Since both teams are on the bubble, the WCC isn’t really a “one bid league.” Its tough to see any team outside of these two winning the WCC. If Saint Mary’s beats Gonzaga in the finals, Gonzaga might steal one of the last at-large bids. Its tough to say at this point.

As always, there could be a team that snags a bid in a major conference like Georgia in 07-08 or USC in 08-09. I wouldn’t be surprised if such a feat occurred in the Atlantic 10, Pac-10 or SEC. All three are pretty weak this year.

Here are two guides to track all of the action: ESPN Championship Week & Bracket Project’s Guide to 2011 Conference Tournaments

Bubble Games of the Week & Bad Loss Alert: March 1st – 6th, Welcome to March!

Its March people. Just when we thought the games couldn’t possibly get anymore important, they most certainly do.

Bubble teams in bold.

Tuesday:
Baylor @ Oklahoma State – 7PM ESPN2 – Baylor is very much in the bubble picture after upsetting Texas A/M for the second time this season. They can’t afford a letdown against an Oklahoma State team that is 12-2 at home.
#1 Ohio State @ Penn State – 9PM BTN – Penn State is also hanging around in the bubble picture (First 4-8 out). A win against the top team in the land on Senior Night would boost their resume, just like it did this past weekend for Virginia Tech.
Boston College @ Virginia Tech – 9PM ESPNU – After losing 6 of their last 9, Boston College is in trouble. A loss here, and they are probably on the outside looking in – for now.

Senior laden Penn State looks to knock off #1 Ohio State on Senior Night.

Wednesday:
UAB @ Southern Miss – 7PM – Two of the three bubble teams in C-USA. UAB looks to hold on to first place while improving their resume with a win. Must win for both.
Cincinnati @ Marquette – 8PM ESPN3 – Marquette and Cincinnati have improved their stocks of late, but the loser might have to watch their back if they don’t finish strong.
Clemson @ #4 Duke – 9PM ESPN – Clemson would be propelled into the thick of things with a win at Cameron Indoor.

Thursday:
UCLA @ Washington – 9PM ESPN2 – The Huskies have lost 5 of 9, including being blown out at home by Washington State this past weekend. As a result, they find themselves on the bubble due to just 2 Top 50 wins.
USC @ Washington St – 10PM – Washington State is just barely in the bubble picture, whereas red hot USC looks to make noise down the stretch. The Trojans have 4 Top 50 wins, including two OOC scalps (Texas, Tennessee) but have lost three games to sub-200 RPI teams (Bradley, TCU, Oregon State) and three more games to sub-100 RPI teams (Rider, Oregon x2).

Friday:
No Games

Virginia Tech is looking to build off their upset of #1 Duke with two bubble wins this week.

Saturday:
#8 Texas @ Baylor – 9PM ESPN – Baylor’s second big game of the week. Texas is reeling, this would be a great opportunity for a Top 25 win.
Colorado State @ #9 San Diego State – 10PM – Colorado State’s bubble will be 100% popped with a loss (would be their fourth in a row). A win leaves them hope of an at-lrage with a Mountain West tournament run
Virginia Tech @ Clemson – Noon EPSN2 – Second big bubble game of the week for both teams. Clemson can’t afford a loss.
Michigan State @ Michigan – 2PM CBS – Michigan is looking to sweep their instate rival and get to .500 (9-9) in the Big Ten. A win would do wonders for their resume while knocking down the Spartans a few pegs.
Nebraska @ Colorado – 9PM – There is no reason why Colorado dispatch of Nebraska on the same court they just beat Texas on.
UCLA @ Washington State – 530PM – Washington State needs all the wins they can get at this point, especially at home.
USC @ Washington – 1030PM – Will be a very interesting game no matter what, but especially intriguing if Washington loses and USC wins earlier in the week.

Sunday:
Penn State @ Minnesota – 1PM BTN – On an otherwise quiet Sunday, the Nittany Lions travel to The Barn to take on reeling Minnesota. No matter what happens when Ohio State travels to Happy Valley on Tuesday, the Nits need this game to boost their road record and Big Ten record.

The follow is a list of games where the bubble team would be in trouble with a loss. A win isn’t noteworthy for Games of the Week, but a loss would be.

Bad Loss Alert:
3/2 Michigan State vs Iowa – 6:30 BTN
3/2 Memphis @ East Carolina – 7PM
3/2 Richmond @ St. Joes – 7PM
3/2 Colorado @ Iowa State – 730PM ESPN3
3/2 LSU @ Georgia – 8PM ESPN3
3/2 Utah @ Colorado State – 9PM

3/4 Marquette @ Seton Hall – 6PM ESPN3
3/4 Tulane @ Memphis – 4PM
3/4 East Carolina @ UAB – 8PM
3/4 Southern Miss @ Tulsa – 8PM

3/5 Wake Forest @ Boston College – Noon

Look out for a short piece on the mid/low-major conference tournaments and which teams could possibly steal at-large bids if they don’t win their conference tournaments.

LockBox & Notes: February 28th

Add: None
Remove: Nebraska, Alabama, Wichita State, Dayton

Last 4 IN: Gonzaga, Colorado, Baylor, Michigan
First 4 OUT: Boston College, Penn State, Butler, Colorado State
On the Fringe: Washington State, Clemson, Southern Miss, Minnesota, VCU

Notes: Colorado State, VCU, Southern Miss and Minnesota all dropped out with losses since the last LockBox. Boston College was edged out by Michigan, Baylor and Colorado due to lack of quality wins. Colorado propelled themselves into the field of 68 after a huge comeback against Texas on Saturday. The Buffalo have 5 Top 50 wins.

Nebraska’s loss to Texas Tech, Alabama’s loss to Ole Miss, Wichita State’s loss to Missouri State and Dayton’s loss to Xavier have dropped these teams out of the LockBox altogether.

Only one bubble team is in action tonight (Gonzaga vs CS Bakersfield), so a Bubble Games of the Week highlighting the important games to follow this week will be posted sometime tomorrow afternoon.